EXERCISE 2

Making an important prediction

PURPOSE

The decisions that people make in life are based typically on certain assumptions or predictions about the future that are often taken for granted but which are rarely one hundred percent certain. This exercise helps you to improve the quality of your thinking when trying to make predictions and hence aids your decision making. You can improve the accuracy of your predictions if you think systematically using the thinking modes.

TASK

Imagine you had to make a prediction about the probability of an important upcoming event. For example, how likely is it that your preferred politician or political party will win the next election?

Have a guess right now giving your answer as a percentage probability (between 0% – impossible, and 100% – certain).

  • What information did you use to make your prediction?

  • How could you improve the accuracy of your prediction? Consider for a moment, what information might be useful to you in making such a prediction, then work through the mind opening questions below.

  • How would you adjust your prediction in the light of working through the questions?

MIND OPENING QUESTIONS

STRUCTURAL THINKING

• What are the economic issues, such as how do people feel about the strength of the economy? 

• What are the social issues, such as who is most likely to vote, and who is not – young vs. old, females vs. males etc?

• What are the environmental issues, such as how might the weather on polling day affect the voter turn out?

• What are the media issues, such as how are certain commentators and journalists predicting the vote will go?

PROCESS THINKING

• What have been the trends in voting intentions to date?

• What new factors might emerge that could change voting intentions?

  • How have voters behaved in similar situations in the past?

  • What if the vote was in the opposite direction – who should not be elected as opposed to who should be elected?

RELATIONAL THINKING

• How are the policies offered by your preferred politician or political party related to the concerns of other voters?

• How are the things that your preferred politician or political party stands for related to the wishes of other influential groups in society, such as trade unions, party sponsors, major corporations??

• What concerns do people on opposite sides have in common??

• How is one side affecting the views of the other, and vice versa, in this debate?

TRANSFORMATIONAL THINKING

• What is the potential for a dramatic shift in voting intentions, for example triggered by a specific event such as a terrorist attack, political scandal or natural disaster?

• How might the conflict between people and politicians on opposites sides of the debate play out and what effect might that have?

  • How might the issues that your preferred politician or political party are promoting be integrated with a bigger and more fundamental problem, such as global climate change or growing imbalances between the wealthy and the poor?

  • What new vision for your region or your country could emerge as a result of the election of your preferred politician or political party? How might this differ from that offered by the other candidates?

INTERESTED IN OTHER EXERCISES?

EXERCISE 1
EXERCISE 3